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Positive news, along with affirmations by our U. S. Federal Reserve on the outlook for interest rates, have helped stock values rebound. Solid Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing reports are showing the economy is still growing. Unemployment is at the lowest level in over a half-century with 304,000 non-farm jobs added in January, while wages are growing. As a result, we do not see a recession this year as likely, but 2020 may be more probable.

The financial markets in 2018 were clouded by reports of a slowing global economy and concerns the long expansion was winding to a close. Many stock markets experienced their worst year since 2008. Equities around the world have been revaluing themselves to this slower pace of growth. Uncertainty around trade policies, together with higher interest rates, have dragged most stock values into correction territory, while many technology stocks have experienced declines over 20% from their late summer levels.

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The financial market’s volatility in recent weeks has reminded many investors of the importance of discipline and diversification. As the stock market’s recent gyrations clearly illustrated, volatility has returned and will likely continue. Rarely pleasant in the moment, this volatility was expected and a part of the consolidation process we believe is ultimately healthy for the ongoing march forward in stock market values.

We hope you have been able to find some relief from these warm days and have plans to finish up your summer enjoyably.

At the beginning of the year the financial markets felt like a continuation of 2017. The tone since February feels considerably different, as more “typical” volatility has returned and is now the norm.