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The financial markets in 2019 delivered some of the most productive investment returns we have seen in a decade. Last year began with a strong reversal of the steep decline stocks experienced in the fourth quarter of 2018, when it became clear the global economy’s growth was slowing. Counter-intuitively, despite this slowdown, stocks finished 2019 near record highs. Although we don’t expect a recession in the new year, we also do not expect the markets to earn returns close to last year’s results.

After a robust first half of 2019, stock markets have been in a state of flux over the last few months and are becoming increasingly concerned about the slowing global and U.S. economies.

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The last 18 months have been a roller coaster ride for investors, even though stocks and bonds have delivered strong returns this year. With interest rates around the world declining, the financial markets have been mostly ignoring the increasing number of signs our global and U. S. economies are slowing. The volatility that initially reappeared in 2018, then in early May of this year, and now again within the last week, is increasingly looking like a precursor for more in the future. Although we feel the global economic expansion can continue, our business cycle appears to be in the later stages. Investing is likely to become more challenging from here.

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Financial markets are now navigating the negatives of “bumpy” trade negotiations and the positives of a more accommodative monetary policy. We expect our U. S. Federal Reserve Bank will leave interest rates alone through the remainder of the year, and neither raise nor cut rates in 2019.